The number of infected people continues to maintain substantial increase of tens of thousands. In contrast, the epidemic situation overseas are not very optimistic.
#Milkytracker import fine tune series#
A series of policies began to be implemented since January 23th, 2020 ( Yang et al., 2020), and the epidemic had stabilized by March 2020. On January 15th, 2020, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) initiated a first-level emergency response ( Li et al., 2020a). In addition, the widespread nature of the disease also slows down activity on a national and global level, along with aggravating unemployment and hunger ( Mckibbin & Fernando, 2020 Armario, 2020). The heart may be damaged and develop myocardial inflammation after recovery from COVID-19 ( Puntmann et al., 2020). However, COVID-19 has a higher infection rate than bat-like SARS, and its pathogenicity is between that of SARS and bat-like SARS ( Benvecnuto et al., 2020). The mortality rate of COVID-19 is estimated to be between 2% and 5%, i.e., lower than that of SARS and Middle East Respirator Syndrome ( Gasmi et al., 2020 Wu, Chen & Chan, 2020).
On March 11th, 2020, the global development of COVID-19 was assessed by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having met the characteristics of a pandemic ( World Health Organization, 2020a). The widespread COVID-19 epidemic is a serious threat, and has become one of the most challenging global catastrophes facing mankind since the Second World War ( China Daily, 2020). The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is brought on by infection from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Coronavirus 2, and the reports of related cases were first released by Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019 ( Zhou et al., 2020).
And the prediction by IndRNN model with fine-tuning are now available online ( ). Timely and appropriate measures can greatly reduce the spread of COVID-19 untimely and inappropriate government policies, lax regulations, and insufficient public cooperation are the reasons for the aggravation of the epidemic situations. Moreover, Policies that play an important role in the development of COVID-19 have been summarized. According to the prediction and validation results, the MAPEs of the proposed framework were less than 6.2% in most cases, and it generated lowest MAPE and RMSE values of 0.05% and 2.14, respectively, for deaths in China. For most of the countries, the MAPEs of fine-tuned IndRNN model were less than 1.2%, the minimum MAPE and RMSE were 0.05%, and 1.17, respectively, by using Chinese deaths, during the testing phase. The applied fine-tuning strategy can effectively reduce the error by up to 20.94% and time cost. It is concluded that the proposed framework based on IndRNN and fine-tuning with high speed and low complexity, has great fitting and prediction performance. The proposed framework consists of four main steps: data pre-processing, model pre-training and weight saving, the weight fine-tuning, trend predicting and validating. To predict the epidemic more accurately under the influence of policies, a framework based on Independently Recurrent Neural Network (IndRNN) with fine-tuning are proposed for predict the epidemic development trend of confirmed cases and deaths in the United Stated, India, Brazil, France, Russia, China, and the world to late May, 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic is the most serious catastrophe since the Second World War.
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